ObjectivesThe course concentrates on applied aspects of forecasting rather than the theoretical approach.Students study 8 taught units, followed by a dissertation, all contained within the 12 month duration of the course. This course will enable students to become familiar and competent in a selection of specialist econometric and forecasting software packages. You will be able to apply economic and other forecasting techniques to business applications. In addition, you will be familiar with stationary and non-stationary time-series and related models and their stochastic properties. You will use such models for the estimation, inference and forecasting of financial and other data
Entry requirementsThe course is aimed at students who would like to further their knowledge of Economics/Finance/Accounting and extend it in the direction of Economic and Business Forecasting, so as to better equip themselves for employment, especially in the field of business, but is also relevant to public sector issues.
Academic titleMSc Economic And Business Forecasting
Course descriptionProgramme
The programme consists of three sequential stages each of one semester's duration (or one academic year for those taking the part time option).
Stage 1
From October to January (leading to PgC) provides the building blocks of principles and theories needed for advanced forecasting techniques. Emphasis in stage one is divided between the academic rigour of the main theory courses and the development of more applied courses designed as a pre-cursor to Stage 2.
Stage 2
From February to June (leading to PgD) is designed to introduce a range of advanced techniques of forecasting.
Stage 3
From June to September (leading to MSc) consists of a 14,000 word dissertation.
Units
Stage 1
Business Economics
This unit concentrates on the economic approach to understanding businesses and their behaviour. In particular, you will be able to understand, apply and evaluate the relevance of various microeconomic theories of the firm to different types of business. Consideration will also be given to business competitiveness and how this is affected by technological innovation. Insights are also possible into the effect of the organisational architecture of firms and how the legal and regulatory environment can constrain firms' behaviour.
Economic and Business Forecasting Workshop
This is a hands-on unit, where students will become familiar with specialist professional econometric and forecasting software packages and become competent in their use. Students will use such packages in conjunction with on-line electronic databases and present technical reports to a professional standard incorporating tables and charts produced using such software packages.
Managerial Economics
The aim of this unit is to equip you with an understanding of the principles of managerial economics and the relevance and application of economic theory to the solution of business problems. On its completion, you should be able to apply economic theories and principles to decision-making in the areas of product pricing, product analysis, and promotion and advertising. You will also appreciate the context of mergers and takeovers, and foreign investment.
Research Methods
This unit introduces the concepts, methodologies and basic methods of undertaking and implementing research in economics and the social sciences.
Stage 2
Time Series Analysis and Business Forecasting
Students on this unit are introduced to and will develop proficiency in a range of methods of time series modelling for economic and business forecasting. Students will be able to estimate, validate and use suitable models to generate forecasts in a variety of economic and business applications.
You will cover topics such as trends, cycles, seasonality and aberrant observations, smoothing and extrapolation methods, dealing with non-linearity (STAR and ANN models), with practical computer experience as appropriate.
Time Series Analysis and Financial Forecasting
This unit examines stationary and non-stationary time-series models, with particular application to financial data. Students will become familiar with the estimation, inference and forecasting of such models (ARMA/ARIMA and ARCH/GARCH) using appropriate computer software and real financial data.
Applied Econometrics and Forecasting
Students completing this unit will achieve a general understanding of the methods, limitations and business applications of economic forecasting techniques.
Topics covered will include:
-Time series data
-The concepts of stationarity and non-stationarity and long/short run modelling
-Univariate ARIMA and VAR modelling
-Co-integration
-ARCH processes and the CAPM
-Option
-The course includes one option unit in Stage 2, to be chosen from the postgraduate options offered in the department. The choices currently offered, subject to demand and lecturer availability, are:
-Economics of Insurance
-Economics of the Internet and the Digital Economy
-Futures and Options Markets
-Tourism Economics
-Dissertation
In Stage 3 you will undertake an investigation of an appropriate, closely specified topic, using the skills you have learnt. You will have the opportunity to initiate, design and conduct a piece of research using original thought and independent judgement. You will have a supervisor from a member of the academic staff who will be able to advise you at regular meetings. Although preliminary work is undertaken earlier in the year, the dissertation is normally completed over the summer months, allowing a 12-month phase for the MSc from start to finish.